NHL Draft: What to know about the Canucks and the 15th overall pick

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The NHL draft is a week away. Most people expect the Vancouver Canucks will trade their first-round pick away in an effort to add a player who can help the roster right now, as opposed to drafting a player who will need a couple of years to even make it to the NHL, let alone be impactful.

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Two years, after all, is Quinn Hughes’ current timeline.

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If Hughes is not going to stay beyond two years, the Canucks really only have this coming season to focus on — it would be the last kick at the can for this era of Canucks, such as they are.

It’s already a near-certainty that Brock Boeser will be on a new team next season, meaning that his goals will need replacing even if management wants to find a player who plays the game in a different way.

And Friday’s news that the Canucks called up Pius Suter’s agent this week — as reported by CHEK-TV’s Rick Dhaliwal — tells us that the Canucks are feeling anxious about the forwards market in general. Matt Duchene signed a contract extension with Dallas this week. He would have been an unrestricted free agent this summer and the Canucks are believed to have had him on their list of targets.

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President of hockey operations Jim Rutherford has spoken openly over the past two months that the route to rejuvenating the team’s forward group likely lies in a trade, rather than a bevy of free agents.

And as the off-season has evolved, it has become clear that the Canucks will most likely have to flip their first-round pick in a trade to bring in the kind of top-six forward they covet.

With all this in mind, let’s take a look at where the Canucks sit with their first-round pick (15th overall) a week out from the draft.

What they need

The Canucks’ prospect pool isn’t overflowing, but it’s not awful.

They’ve got Tom Willander, Elias Pettersson and Jonathan Lekkerimäki at the top of the heap, plus guys like Aatu Räty, Arshdeep Bains, Linus Karlsson, Max Sasson, Victor Mancini and Kirill Kudryavtsev in the second tier.

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Of the former three, only Elias Pettersson is believed to be untouchable, although the Canucks likely won’t move Willander, given his solid growth since his draft and the fact he’s a right-hand shot, a prized thing for a defenceman.

Lekkerimäki scored two impressive goals on Thursday in game four of the Calder Cup final, but those were just his second and third goals in the playoffs to date, hardly an impressive run for a player the Canucks had hoped would be able to quickly add to the lineup and perhaps be a long-term replacement for Boeser. He’s also not big, not strong, and not especially quick. His finishing talents are notable, but he needs to grow his overall game to be an impactful NHLer.

Pettersson, the defenceman, looks set to move from prospect to NHL regular this coming season. That’s how much he impressed everyone with his play in the NHL this past season.

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The Canucks are hopeful Mancini can grow his game beyond being just a “very strong guy” while Kudryavtsev has improved greatly as a pro. Now the question is can he do all the smart things he does in the AHL at an NHL pace?

Both Bains and Karlsson have a chance to be hard-working grinders who play the game with smarts Both have shown glimpses of this in the NHL but need to be consistent contributors down the lineup, night in and night out.

Sasson has good feet and understands the game well. To hang as a fourth-line centre he needs to find ways to get the puck up the ice more.

Conversely, can Räty improve his skating enough to become the dependable third-line centre he showed glimpses of in his late-season cameo in the NHL this spring?

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All this is to say that the Canucks can use talent everywhere. They need forwards who can change the game. They need defencemen who can play with smarts as well as with bite. They have a decent crop of players who will pan out as mid-roster players, but they’re lacking in true high-end upside.

Who’s likely available at 15?

The Canucks didn’t send a big staff to the NHL combine in Buffalo earlier this month, a sign many took to mean that they aren’t all that interested in picking at 15th overall.

Reportedly the main player they spent much time with was Seattle Thunderbirds centre Braeden Cootes, who they took out for dinner.

“I think they just liked the way I have that hard skill, a lot of people call it. I can skate well, I compete really hard. That was pretty much it, they’ll be honest he didn’t talk too much about hockey, it was a lot of just getting to know each other, stuff away from the rink,” Cootes told CHEK-TV’s Donnie and Dhali Show about what Todd Harvey, the Canucks’ scouting director, told him about what they liked about the centre’s play.

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We asked an NHL scout, we’ll call him “Anonymous Scout No. 1”, about Cootes’ value at 15th.

“Fifteen isn’t a bad spot,” he said. “No great targets, but also not many awful options there.”

“If their guy really is Braeden Cootes, that’s fine. He has absolutely sick skill and an elite release, but he plays like a grinder so it barely ever pops. Creativity and processing are issues so I think he tops out as a mid-six guy,” he added.

A second scout, who we’ll call Anonymous Scout No. 2, said the Canucks should keep their eyes on what happens with Victor Eklund. Elite Prospects thinks he has a chance to be the next Seth Jarvis — and EP rates Jarvis as the next Brad Marchand. What team wouldn’t want a player like that?

And yet, Scout No. 2 notes, there’s a decent chance he slides to 15. There are some quality defencemen and centres in the mix with him, and teams tend to downgrade wingers.

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“He’ll slide, but likely not that far,” Scout No. 2 said. But you never know.

“15 is hard to peg as it’s more about the mistakes made ahead of them,” he added.

If Eklund is gone by the Canucks’ time to pick, Scout No.2 thinks they should look to draft giant centre Roger McQueen who also has huge upside to his sill set.

We also have Anonymous Scout No. 3, who says of Cootes: “Cootes is a great junior, but is he better than Krebs, Newhook, Jost, Steel?” All those centremen have underwhelmed as pros.

He believes the Canucks’ scouts’ preference will be for defenceman Kashawn Aitcheson.

“Aitcheson will be advertised as Bieksa,” he went on. “Certainly has the bite, but not the brain or skill. Forget the goals. Used as a shooter in power play in OHL, but will never see that opportunity as a pro. His most translatable attributes are his B Game. Physicality, and he backs it up.”

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What they may actually do with it

Elite Prospects’ Cam Robinson concurs with Anonymous Scout No. 1’s assessment. It’s Robinson who asked around and determined that of the top 20 or so prospects, Cootes was the one the Canucks took out for dinner.

The 15th overall pick is in an interesting spot — and if the Canucks are set to trade it, they would be wise to wait as long as possible to move it.

“It’s really hard to forecast (who will be available at 15) since the 8 to 14 slots are going to be a complete jumble,” Robinson explained. As the picture evolves on who will be available at 15th overall, so will how other teams value that pick, including the teams the Canucks will be talking trade with. Teams who are interested in 15 today may value it less as the moment of selection approaches and vice versa — teams may become more interested in 15 because a player they covet remains available.

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“Which is why they should wait as along as possible if they do plan on moving it,” Robinson concurred. Then a word of caution: “But there are so many picks available in the 14 to 25 range. Everyone is open to moving them.”

In other words, this isn’t an easy scenario to navigate.

What is clear is that if the field settles in the Canucks’ favour, they should be able to grab an interesting player at 15. And if a player like Eklund or McQueen is still there, they will surely have a few suitors banging on their door about a trade.

How will this affect the future of the roster and the prospect pool?

Simply put, it’s a main point to watch for both aspects: if they deal their pick, that will improve the roster, but it will leave the prospect pool rather stagnant.

And if management can’t re-set this roster in a way that will inspire Hughes to stay beyond 2027, then they’re looking down the barrel of a rebuild. And to make a rebuild work you need NHL-ready prospects, and you need them fast.

pjohnston@postmedia.com

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