Entshonalanga naphakathi ne-Afrika, izimvula ezinamandla zakamuva nezikhukhula zibonisa ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kungenye isithupha esikalini kakade esisindwa yimpi nezifo.
Ucwaningo olusha Iphakamisa ukuthi izehlakalo zesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu eSudan, Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon naseNiger ngenyanga edlule – ezabulala abantu abangaphezu kwenkulungwane futhi zasusa amakhulu ezinkulungwane ngaphezulu – zenziwe zaba zimbi kakhulu ngenxa yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, okubuye kwenze ukuqubuka kwekholera ebisivele kubi ukubhebhetheka ngokushesha.
Okunye okutholwe ocwaningweni lweWorld Weather Attribution (WWA), oluqhathanise isimo sezulu sakamuva nezimo zezulu emhlabeni ongenakho ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu okudalwa abantu, kuphakamise ukuthi iSudan ingalindela izimo zesimo sezulu ezinjengalesi njalo eminyakeni emithathu.
“Iningi lezimo zesimo sezulu esizibhekile zikhombisa ukuthambekela kwezehlakalo zemvula enkulu kakhulu kulesi sifunda,” kuchaza uClair Barnes, isazi sezibalo se-WWA kanye nozakwethu wocwaningo e-Imperial College London.
Ochwepheshe bathi ukushaywa okuphindaphindiwe kwalezi ziphepho kuphazamisa noma yimaphi amathuba okusimama, kanye nokujulisa ubungozi obukhona emiphakathini.
“Uzothola ukuthi amandla abantu okubhekana nalezi zikhukhula ayancipha kakhulu, ikakhulukazi njengoba kwenzeka kaningi,” kusho uJoyce Kimutai, umbhali kanye naye ocwaningweni lwe-WWA nomcwaningi eCentre for Environmental Policy e-Imperial College. London.
Izifo zekholera ziyaqhuma
Izimvula ezinamandla kanye nezikhukhula kwandisa ukusabalala kwezifo ezibangelwa amanzi njengekholera. ENigeria, bangaphezu kuka-350 abantu asebebulewe yilesi sifo kulo nyaka – nabangu-150 kubo ngenyanga edlule. ngokweWorld Health Organization. Izwe belivele libhekene nokuqubuka kwalesi sifo ekuqaleni kukaJuni.
ESudan, ebanjwe amaqembu amasosha alwayo, kubikwe amacala angaphezu kuka-15,000 nokufa kwabantu abangaphezu kuka-400 ngenyanga edlule.
“Masikubize ngokuthi kunjani: lesi isifo sobumpofu,” kusho uDkt. Isaac Bogoch, uchwepheshe wezifo ezithathelwanayo e-Toronto General Hospital, enezela ukuthi ukuxoshwa ezingxabanweni, ukungabi khona kwenhlanzeko, ukukhucululwa kwendle kanye nengqalasizinda yamanzi ahlanzekile konke kuhola. “ekusetheni okuphelele kokuqubuka kwamanzi.”
Ikholera ibulala ngenxa yokuphelelwa amanzi emzimbeni ngokushesha ngenxa yohudo olunamanzi amaningi. Nakuba abanye abantu bengalulama ngokuphuza uketshezi olufanele, abanye bangase badinge usizo olufakwa emithanjeni noma ngisho nama-antibiotic. Kukhona nemithi yokugoma ngomlomo, kodwa i-WHO ithi isitokwe somhlaba wonke siphelile njengamanje.
U-Bogoch uthi lokhu kungenxa yesidingo esikhulu somhlaba wonke kule minyaka embalwa edlule. Uthi kuyadingeka ukuvuma ukuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzokwenza isimo sibe sibi kakhulu.
“Uma sizobona ukuqubuka okwengeziwe futhi lokho kuqubuka kuzoba kukhudlwana, sidinga imithi yokugoma ukuze siyifake,” kusho uBogoch.
Ngabe imvula nezikhukhula zizovama kangakanani?
Ucwaningo lwe-WWA luthole ukuthi izikhathi zemvula ezinamandla ezithatha inyanga yonke sezivamile eSudan. Lolu hlobo lwesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu kulindeleke ukuthi lwenzeke njalo eminyakeni emithathu esimweni sezulu sanamuhla, futhi sibe nobunzima obungamaphesenti ayishumi ngenxa yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, imvula ehlasele iNigeria, Niger, Cameroon kanye neChad kulo nyaka, kanye neSudan, ifana naleyo isifunda esabhekana nayo ngo-2022. I-WWA yafunda leyo mvula yangaphambilini futhi bathole ukuthi imvula manje isinesisindo esingamaphesenti amahlanu kuya kwangama-20 ngenxa yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu.
Abacwaningi abazange benze ucwaningo olusha lwamazwe amane ngaphandle kweSudan, ngoba imiphumela izofana nocwaningo lwango-2022. Bathe imvula nezikhukhula kulesi sifunda kulindelekile njengoba ucwaningo lwabo lwangaphambilini luthole imvula enamandla efanayo, ngokwesilinganiso, njalo eminyakeni emihlanu kuya kweyishumi esimweni sezulu sanamuhla.
“Lokhu kuzoqhubeka nokuba kubi kakhulu uma siqhubeka sishisa izibaso ezimbiwa phansi,” kusho uBarnes etshela izintatheli esithangamini nabezindaba. Izilinganiso zocwaningo zisekelwe esimweni sezulu samanje esifudumele esingu-1.3 degrees ngokwesilinganiso kunezikhathi zangaphambi kwemboni.
“Uma sifinyelela amadigri amabili, okulindeleke ukuthi kwenzeke ekuqaleni kwawo-2050 … lezi zinhlobo zemvula zingenzeka minyaka yonke,” kuxwayisa uBarnes.
Ingabe amazwe azokwazi ukululama?
Uma izinhlekelele zesimo sezulu zenzeka kaningi, amazwe nawo alahlekelwa isikhathi asidingayo ukuze alulame kweyodwa ngaphambi kokuba kugadle okulandelayo.
“ENigeria, izindawo eziningi ezithinteke kakhulu bezingakalulami ngokugcwele ezikhukhuleni zango-2022 … zikhombisa indlela yokuba sengozini,” kusho uMaja Vahlberg, oyilungu lethimba le-WWA kanye nomeluleki wezobuchwepheshe eRed Cross Red Crescent Society. .
Okunye okuxakayo, ukuthi izixazululo ezifanele kungenzeka zingabi khona manje kulezi zizwe. UJola Ajibade, ofunda ngobungozi besimo sezulu kanye nabantu abasengozini eNyuvesi yase-Emory, uthi isibonelo esisodwa imali eyisisekelo yokwakha kabusha amakhaya ngemva kwenhlekelele.
“Impela awukho umshwalense wabantu abasemijondolo, abangabanye bamaqembu amakhulu akhahlanyezwe yizikhukhula neziphepho,” kusho u-Ajibade, ephakamisa izinhlelo zomshwalense omncane nezindlela zokuvikela isimo sezulu kulezi zindlu, ezivame ukuba buthakathaka. , izinto ezithambile.
Kepha uxwayisa ngokuthi ukwakha kabusha ngaphandle kokubonisana kuzo zonke izinyathelo kungaholela ekufudukeni okwengeziwe.
“Ingxabano engokwesiko ithi, ‘ake sisuse abantu endleleni, asiklame kabusha le ndawo ukuze kuhlale kuyo abantu futhi kuphephe’,” kusho u-Ajibade echaza ukuthi abantu bayathutha futhi bavame ukungakwazi ukuphindela emphakathini osanda kwakhiwa kabusha. .
“Sesiphenduke uhlobo lwe-climate gentrification.”
Ngasohlangothini lwezokunakekelwa kwempilo, enye inselele ukuthi lapho lokhu kuqubuka kade kwenzeka – ezifundeni zabantu abahola kancane noma ezindaweni ezinezingxabano – abahlomele kangako ukubhekana nezimo eziphuthumayo zezempilo zomphakathi kwasekuqaleni.
Ngezinsiza ezilinganiselwe, kuba okubaluleke kakhulu ukuthola ukuthi lokho kuqubuka kwekusasa kuzodlala nini futhi kanjani, ukuze imali nosizo luqondiswe ezindaweni ezibaluleke kakhulu.
UCaroline Wagner, uprofesa osizayo kwezobuchwepheshe bezinto eziphilayo eMcGill University, ufunda izindlela zokudluliselwa kwezifo ezihlukahlukene – futhi ikakhulukazi ukuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzoba nomthelela kanjani ekutheni izifo zizosakazeka kanjani.
“Kumele sibabone ukuthi sizolungiselela yini into efana nesifo sohudo esikhathini esizayo,” kusho yena.
“Ngakho-ke ake sithi siyazi ukuthi, uyazi, ububanzi bodenga kanye neZika kanye nomalaleveva buzokhula ngendlela ethile, ngakho-ke ngicabanga ukuthi sidinga ukuhlomisa imingcele emisha lapho lezi zifo zihamba khona nengqalasizinda yezempilo yomphakathi efanele ukulawula lokho. . Noma tshala ezibhedlela nakwengqalasizinda yokunakekelwa kwempilo enamandla kakhulu ezenzakalweni zezikhukhula noma izimo zezulu.”
