The events in Seoul on December 3-4 may forever change the essence and context of the political process surrounding Ukraine. How exactly, Gazeta.ua investigated.
Late in the evening of December 3, the president of South Korea Yoon Seok Yeol addressed the nation. He accused the opposition Democratic Party of sympathizing with North Korean communists and the paralysis of state power in South Korea. On this he introduced martial law.
Dreams became horrors
Martial law conditions in the Republic of Korea are harsh. Citing the law, Yoon Seok-yeol banned political activity, dissolved parliament and, according to unofficial reports, authorized searches and arrests without warrants.
When the deputies of the National Assembly urgently arrived at the parliament, the building was already surrounded by the military. Many of the citizens of Seoul ran to their relatives and friends, many frightened citizens came across patrol policemen who warned of possible arrests.
Against the background of panic and chaos, the leader of the opposition to the president, the Democratic Party Lee Jae Myung called the martial law decree unconstitutional and anti-people: “Tanks, armored vehicles and soldiers with guns and swords will soon control the countryIt is interesting that the leader of the pro-presidential ruling party “People’s Power” Han Dong Hun described the decree as illegal.
The deputies were able to break into the parliament and declared the martial law decree illegal. Yoon Seok Yeol replied that he would cancel it and kept his promise. So the martial law lasted for six hours. After that, the military belatedly and reluctantly left the parliament. Several opposition parties called for the impeachment of the president, and citizens outraged by the encroachment on democratic freedoms are still rallying under the parliament.
The rapidity of the actions of South Korean politicians is simply explained: in 1979, as a result of the assassination of President Park Chung-hee, South Korea experienced a military coup and strict martial law.
But not everyone outside the country understood the kaleidoscopic development of the situation, which is still far from stable.
Without us around us
Yoon Seok-yeol did not warn the US about trying to impose martial law, although more than 30,000 US troops are based in South Korea. A representative of the US Security Council, however, assured that Joe Biden’s administration is monitoring the development of events and expresses serious concern. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell emphasized the inviolability of the US alliance with South Korea. But this can be a problem.
Military cooperation between the two countries is the foundation of stability in the Asia-Pacific region (APR). Rapprochement with Japan, with which the US also has a mutual defense agreement, and with the Philippines would aim to strengthen the “security triangle” in the Asia-Pacific region, the risks of escalation in which to emphasize before the summit of foreign ministers of NATO countries on December 3-4, 2024. Secretary General of the Alliance Mark Rutte reported – they are monitoring the situation in the country, which “is our important partner“.
Any instability in South Korea has serious consequences for our policy in the Asia-Pacific region, the retired US colonel said Cedric Leightondespite the fact that the American military is always ready for possible armed clashes.
Between the US and South Korea, a nuclear cooperation mechanism for deterrence (DPRK) has been implemented since 2023, added Rachel, a senior researcher at the Stimson Center in Washington Minion Lee. By incomplete analogy, the Republic of Korea has no nuclear weapons of its own, so it relies on those from the United States. But President Yun Seok-yol’s recent actions will call into question the reliability and predictability of South Korea as an ally and partner in the eyes of the United States, Rachel Lee said.
After all, it is possible that he tried to solve his narrowly political problems at the expense of the military, escalating the situation of provoking the DRC and, possibly, the USA.
Political intrigue in Korean
Yoon Seok-yeol won the presidential election as the candidate of the conservative People’s Power Party with a narrow margin (47.85%) over Democratic Party rival Hong Joong-pyo (41.50%). In the midst of the election campaign during the primaries, he, as a former attorney general, was accused of allegedly orchestrating politically motivated harassment of his competitors. In particular, and Hong Joon Pyo. There were also reports in the press about Yoon Seok Yeol’s penchant for shamanic practices and his admiration for former military dictator Jung Doo Hwan. He had to publicly apologize for making public statements about this, but Yoon later posted a video on social media where he feeds a dog an apple. The characters for “apple” and “sorry” are identical in Korean, so the video was mixed. The president’s idol, Jung Doo-hwan, is known for torturing and harshly persecuting dissenters.
That is why Yoon Seok Yeol himself, as well as representatives of the opposition, as well as some of the pro-presidential party, had reasons to worry for their lives on December 3. This explains the speed of the reaction: when the first soldiers entered the parliament building, the deputies also went there, and the free space on the square was filled by protesters with democratic slogans against martial law.
the opposition National Assembly blocked many of the president’s decisions, and he, in response, blocked theirs.
The formal, albeit unspoken, reason for the agitation of the president of South Korea was the parliament’s refusal to approve the state budget, but in fact the problem is deeper: the opposition National Assembly blocked many of the president’s decisions, and he, in response, blocked theirs. Defending the Minister of Defense, the president intended to attract the military to his side. It is the Minister of Defense, by the way, who is responsible for martial law.
South Korean sources report a secret meeting of Yoon Seok Yeol, after which he came out late with a stunning address.
Now the Ministry of Defense Kim Yeon-hyung resigned, apologized to everyone for what happened and took full responsibility for the events of December 3-4. This could be a tactical move, as six opposition parties are calling for Yoon Seok-yeol’s impeachment, his position is uncertain as his closest officials and advisers resign and people across the country continue to rally. Instead, the US calls for a solution to the situation “peacefully in accordance with the principle of the rule of law“, the state secretary said Anthony Blinkenwho welcomed the South Korean president’s revocation of his decree.
So, Yun received certain guarantees. Although, according to the latest data, a meeting of the President of South Korea with Prime Minister Han Dok-soo and the leaders of the ruling party “People’s Power” is coming soon after the registration of the impeachment appeal of six political forces. If he is dismissed (this requires a majority of votes in parliament, including several from the ruling party), the country will be temporarily governed by a prime minister, and South Koreans must elect a new president within 60 days.
So far without a happy ending
In Russia, they believe that a happy ending is far from over – the spokeswoman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, expressed the hope that the “tragic” events” in South Korea will not affect the public and political situation on the Korean Peninsula. At the same time, Moscow, Beijing, and Pyongyang are particularly closely monitoring the situation , therefore restrained in estimates.
The leader of the DPRK is especially cautious, because the Democratic Party has been accused of sympathizing with the North Korean communists. Kim Jong-un benefits from any destabilization of his southern neighbor, but not to such a degree that it would require US intervention. Yoon Seok-yeol, in contrast to his predecessor, has taken a tougher stance on North Korea, but surprisingly, this may be more beneficial to In than the politicians in Seoul who claim diplomatic ways of understanding with Pyongyang.
In China, the reasoning is much more complicated: the DPRK is an ally of the Russian Federation, as a result of the events in Seoul, it will strengthen itself from the inside, at least at the level of propaganda. Therefore, it will become more inclined to deepen friendship with Russia.
The failed attempt to impose martial law, even without consulting or warning a key strategic ally, deals a major blow to the triangle and opens up opportunities for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
In North Korea, they like to joke about any destabilization in South Korea, said a political science teacher at the University of Oxford Edward Howell. Therefore”we should not be surprised if Pyongyang uses the internal crisis in the Republic of Korea to its advantage, rhetorically or otherwise“, he noted.
But in which? North Korea is waiting, because the crisis in its southern neighbor is developing.
Ukrainian interest
Recently, Yoon Seok Yeol attracted the attention of the whole world with information about the participation of North Korean soldiers in the war in Ukraine on the side of the Russian Federation. Putin did not confirm, but he did not deny this either. The issue was considered at several UN meetings, in particular, by the Security Council, where the representative of the DPRK did not deny it, but did not confirm it either, noting only that there is a strategic partnership agreement between North Korea and the Russian Federation, which complies with the norms of international law and provides for economic, political, scientific cooperation , cultural and military.
Representatives of the United States, Great Britain, South Korea and the assistant secretary general of the United Nations, citing intelligence data, warned of a rapid increase in the number of redeployment of North Korean troops to the territory of the Russian Federation, where they are fighting in the Kursk region under false passports of residents of the Russian Far East. On December 4, 2024, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine once again reported not only the presence of North Korean fighters on our territory, but also their complaints about poor nutrition. The Ukrainian side has repeatedly confirmed that the North Koreans are involved on the battlefield, but the Pentagon has not yet confirmed this.
South Korea provides humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. Last week, the first tranche of budget support arrived, but Seoul does not want to sell weapons, even after the visit of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Rustem Umerov, who went there precisely for this purpose. At the same time, Andrii Belousov of the Russian Defense Ministry flew to Pyongyang and even met with Kim Jong Un. Will the escalation on the Korean Peninsula affect us? After all, it is possible that Yun actually wanted to intercept a possible armed escalation.
New realities on the international arena
Therefore, regardless of the outcome of the political crisis in South Korea, what happened will raise the international stakes in the current political moment, Howell noted. In his opinion, at the same time, the events of December 3-4 in Seoul will call into question or even significantly complicate South Korea’s cooperation with its military allies.
Seoul’s interest in the war in Ukraine after the DPRK entered it in full scale is clearly outlined, now it is important whether it will be able to be implemented despite the internal political discussions. It is, for example, about the supply of weapons or budget support. One or another decision may give Putin a temporary advantage if the new US president cuts support to Ukraine, if only for the duration of the audit. And at the same time, it will strengthen the DPRK, which will not need to divert significant forces to help the Russian Federation. And on international platforms, it will be impossible to discuss the war in Ukraine and the tension on the Korean Peninsula separately.
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