Postmedia’s Maple Leafs season preview

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When Will The Maple Leafs Win The Cup?
From Craig Berube to the Core Four, Postmedia assesses the level of hope fans of the Leafs should have heading into the new NHL season.

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To some, it’s unfathomable Toronto would see its NHL-record Stanley Cup drought stretch to a 57th year after another early playoff exit, then ‘run it back’ with the same headliners, including the much-maligned Mitch Marner and team president Brendan Shanahan who has one playoff series win to show for his 10 years in office.

Yet it’s also a very different team, from a new coach who’s big on action, not public speaking, to an upgraded, big boy blue line with as many as three new faces to at least two members of last year’s championship Florida Panthers, plus a former 30-goal scorer seeking a renaissance.

There’s little debate this team will make the playoffs again; it’s what happens after the calendar turns to April that has come to define the black hole in the ‘centre of the hockey universe’.

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STATUS TODAY

The Cup window for the Core (Marner, Auston Matthews, John Tavares and William Nylander) looked to be closed after another first-round failure to a division rival (Boston). But you have still to make the playoffs for a Cup shot and since Matthews was drafted first overall eight years ago, the Leafs have never missed.

There were many calls by a frustrated pubic to dump Marner after a dud post-season before realization he still holds all the no-move cards and doesn’t want to leave his beloved GTA. He’ll sign a new deal sometime in the new year while the expectation is Tavares stays beyond this final year of an $11-million US contract for a hometown discount to stay in the cast. General manager Brad Treliving, beginning his second year, has now put his own stamp on the team, adding some bite to the existing skill level.

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REASON TO BELIEVE

Every season brings change, but this is the first time Toronto sought to upgrade four areas at once: Goaltending, defence, forwards and coaching, while still in Cup contention.

Anthony Stolarz is out to prove he’s more than a career backup and in doing so should push young Joseph Woll, who needs to stay healthy more than anything else. Treliving successfully concluded a long quest to get Chris Tanev, a favourite physical presence from his Calgary days and landed another front-line UFA defenceman in Oliver Ekman-Larsson.

Depth at left wing looks the strongest in years with Matthew Knies, 35-year-old Max Pacioretty (after his first rehab-free summer in a few seasons), the return of Bobby McMann (injured in last year’s playoffs) and Nick Robertson, who halted his trade request for a cheap one-year deal he hopes will finally establish his worth.

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REASON FOR SKEPTICISM

The Atlantic Division is the NHL’s Group of Death and the Leafs are hard pressed to earn home ice-advantage in any series against defending champion Florida, the Tampa Bay Lightning and archrival Boston. All of those teams dial up the skullduggery in spring and it often neutralizes Matthews and Marner’s scoring ability.

While the Leafs keep looking for their answer in net, Bobrovsky and Andrei Vasilevskiy give their respective coaches Paul Maurice and Jon Cooper no such sleepless nights. And with every year the Leafs don’t win a Cup, or even go beyond the first round, the pressure, complete with Blue and White noise increases.

PROSPECT PIPELINE

Both Treliving and predecessor Kyle Dubas made the most of scant draft picks, the by-product of the former’s playoff trade gambles. Knies, Woll and now centre Fraser Minten contributed to Dubas’s draft legacy and Treliving scored with OHL playoff MVP Easton Cowan, who could make the team out of camp as a winger.

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Minten, often teamed with Cowan on his left wing, will likely get his feet wet full time with the AHL Marlies this year and based on last week’s rookie camp, fluid defencemen Topi Niemela and 6-foot-7 Cade Webber will be on the radar if there are any injury issues early in the season. Towering Dennis Hildeby will likely be the starting goalie on the Marlies and once he catches up with his own size, should be ready for his first NHL action if called upon.

SALARY CAP SITUATION

Despite going into camp over the limit by more than $1 million, the Leafs are in decent long-range shape after ceiling woes dogged them almost the entire history of the cap era. Getting under by opening night might cost them defenceman Timothy Liljegren or Conor Timmins, but they have one of the best bean counters in assistant general manager Brandon Pridham.

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GRADING THE LEAFS HEADING INTO THE SEASON

Pundits will rightly argue the Leafs should have won at least a championship or two by now with the kind of talent that four different general managers have had to work with, including four picks in the top five of the draft.

Having ‘blown it up’ nearly a decade ago, the Leafs are hoping the hard playoff lessons are finally about to pay off, as it did for clubs such as Detroit, Washington and Tampa Bay, who stuck with their primary building blocks and had faith rewarded with championships.

Finding the right supporting cast has been elusive and now it’s up to Treliving and Berube to establish a different identity, one where the Leafs can’t simply rely on out-scoring their lack of size, defensive acumen and streaky goaltending.

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FRONT OFFICE
GRADE – C

The flailing ‘Shanaplan’ faced a possible total scrapping when new MLSE boss Keith Pelley took control in April. But the latter decided to give the team president a lifeline. While Treliving was Shanahan’s hasty hire after Dubas’s unplanned exit in the summer of 2023, ‘Tree’ has made progress in a short time and deserves the chance to follow through his plan on a more traditional path, bulking up the Leafs versus leaning on average sized speed skaters.

Both Dubas and Treliving have been able to work some salary cap magic thanks to assistant Brandon Pridham and up until the recent departure of amateur scouting whiz Wes Clark to rejoin Dubas in Pittsburgh, the Leafs mined several gems from the draft.

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COACHING STAFF
GRADE — Incomplete

The bench has come full circle from a hard-ass Cup winner in Mike Babcock — who proved far too intense — via Sheldon Keefe and his three 100-point seasons, back to a hard-ass Cup winner in Berube, who won five years ago in St. Louis.

Berube has surrounded himself with familiar faces in retaining old Blues’ pal Mike van Ryn and Marc Savard and adding Lane Lambert, but this is a market like no other where his decisions will be sliced and diced daily. Maybe that criticism won’t bother the stoic Berube and he eventually enjoys the popularity of a Pat Quinn or Pat Burns, but it won’t take much more than a three-game losing streak in October to cause a ruckus in town.
And just wait until Berube issues hisfirst high-profile benching.

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LEADERSHIP
GRADE – C

The Leafs have a defined ‘leadership group’, trotted out to face the media at the start and end of the year or for newsworthy events. Comprised of long-serving stars, they’ve preferred to try and show the way by example, long-time captain John Tavares never using his platform to publically criticize, even as those players with letters have struggled in playoffs.

Don’t expect that to change under the newly-promoted skipper Matthews, though it’s significant the Leafs captain is once again their best player, which was not the case since Mats Sundin departed. Tavares will wear an ‘A’, along with incumbents Marner and Morgan Rielly.

Make no mistake, if there’s a change in the dressing room dynamic, it will be because Berube lit the fuse.

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FORWARDS
GRADE — A

Start with the multi-Rocket Richard Trophy winning Matthews, who has already broken a few franchise scoring marks. He’s added penalty killing to his already responsible defensive work with takeaways and turnovers.

Marner’s meagre three playoff points clouded another productive regular season. But if Knies takes the next step as first line left winger and the power play produces as it should, Marner’s first 100-point season should result. Nylander certainly shut up his detractors the past couple of seasons, but Tavares’ numbers could start tailing off as he reaches his mid-30s.

Pacioretty, if he has indeed returned to full health at age 35, could change the left wing picture dramatically and chip in 20 to 30 goals. But the Leafs still lack a big shot from the point.

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DEFENCE
GRADE — B

Perhaps a little over-optimistic here, given this has been a problem area for about as long as Toronto’s had bad traffic. On paper at least, Treliving has made significant upgrades. Chris Tanev is a physical force whom Treliving has been eyeing since he got the Toronto job. And who wouldn’t want the presence of Oliver Ekman-Larsson just a few months after he won a Stanley Cup?

Then it’s a grey area as the Leafs try and get Jani Hakanpaa and his sore knee back in working order, a process that might take weeks or months. But at 6-foot-7, with the promise of improving Toronto’s 21st place penalty killing, he’s a low risk.

Tanev and Rielly could prove a formidable pair, Tanev adding to the bite of Jake McCabe and Simon Benoit. Ekman-Larsson’s partner is not so clear, if Liljegren or Timmins get moved by opening night for salary cap purposes.

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GOALTENDING
GRADE — C

When it comes down to it, Woll nor Stolarz has played more than 30 games in a single NHL season, Stolarz a spectator while Sergei Bobrovsky survived the Panthers’ roller coaster ride to a title. But he is fired up for a shot at a No. 1 job late in his career, while Woll wants to show he can stay healthy. Matt Murray, after nearly a full year off for hip surgery, is in the wings while the 6-7 Hildeby gets playing time on the farm.

OVERALL
GRADE — B

The Panthers, Bruins and Lightning have all been above or near Toronto in the standings and each has beaten it in playoffs the past few years. That will be in the Leafs heads until they do something about it, especially where the Panthers and Bruins are concerned

There will be pushback from teams the Leafs have been able to keep beneath them the past few years in regular season and as cordial as Berube has been in summer interviews with his players, some controversy is inevitable in coming months. But as long as the Leafs understand him after 82 games and take their compete level up a notch or two, they should be rewarded.

Lhornby@postmedia.com
X: @sunhornby

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