Trzaskowski’s staff is planning "inverted L". "We know where it will be most difficult" [KULISY]

Poland strong in economic patriotism, supporting domestic companies and entrepreneurship. Our anchor is to be powerful agriculture and cheap energy.

And a strong currency so that inflation in Poland does not reach 20%. Therefore, after winning the elections, the candidate of the Civic Coalition wants to have a significant influence on the appointment of new authorities of the National Bank of Poland. It is at the president’s request that the position of head of the central bank is filled.

No more social and communication exclusion. After moving to the “big palace”, a local government official from the town hall is to be an advocate for small towns that are losing their social functions. He wants to visit over 120 cities that did not receive any support during the PiS government and, after listening to the inhabitants, “draw a map of their needs.”

He also announces the creation of a Presidential Intervention Fund for permanently unresolved issues.

And he assures that he is not running for president to become a “chandelier guardian.” He will be an independent head of state, not another Adrian – a pen of the prime minister or president.

There is no point in talking about every topic

Do these campaign themes of Trzaskowski remind you of anything? His staff don’t even try to hide the fact that they were inspired by… Donald Trump. And collapsing governments in Germany and France.

– It was clear that he did not get distracted throughout the entire campaign. Instead of talking about every topic, just three topics that need to stand out and get to the voters. Half a year is a long time to show your vision – explains one of the collaborators of the Civic Coalition candidate.

If Trzaskowski’s team manages to break through with such a narrative, it has a chance to break out of the vicious circle of presidential campaigns, where the most important issues for years have been the termination of pregnancy, attitudes towards the LGBT community and sexual education.

These topics are much more convenient for Rafał Trzaskowski than for Karol Nawrocki. It is well known what the Civic Coalition candidate thinks about this. He has declared it more than once or twice and he is unlikely to surprise us with anything. Secondly, despite the persistent efforts of PiS, Confederation and a significant part of PSL, Poles are becoming more and more liberal on these issues. Polls increasingly show support above 60 percent. for the introduction of civil partnerships or the liberalization of abortion law.

Stations of the Cross

What are Trzaskowski and his staff afraid of? Questions about crosses and the fight against the Church. The May decree of the Mayor of Warsaw that the capital’s offices are religiously neutral places will be reflected in the campaign as a hiccup. When it turned into a political row, Trzaskowski explained that it was not about removing crosses or fighting Catholicism, but about ensuring that the common administrative space was free of religious symbols. And after a few weeks, the city hall vaguely added that it was “only a guideline when arranging or renovating new spaces.”

Such a decision a year before the elections does not reflect the political cunning of the KO candidate or his advisors. Their explanations will be of no use in the campaign, because in every smaller town during his tour of Poland, Trzaskowski will have to answer questions about the removal of crosses and the fight against the Church.

– We will try to get away from it, but there is no point in pretending – it will be difficult. PiS will definitely send people along Rafał’s route with such questions, say Trzaskowski’s associates.

His staff will also try to “regain patriotism.” This is a problem that the Platform and its candidates have been struggling with for years. PiS appropriated patriotism, leaving no room for another narrative.

– It’s really just disgusting that they try to convince us that we don’t like real heroes. And all you have to do is talk to the Warsaw insurgents about it to find out the truth – say Trzaskowski’s people, who has been caring for veterans for years.

Problem number two, which PiS is working on very intensively, is the list of sponsors of the Poland of the Future Campus. This is an annual event for young people organized in Olsztyn by the mayor of the capital. It lasts a week, there are panels, discussions, concerts and creative activities. Although there is no direct political agitation – in the form of, for example, banners – there are leaders and politicians associated exclusively with the October 15 coalition.

As we hear, PiS will want to use information about foreign NGOs that were financially involved in the organization of the Campus, and about private companies such as Orange or Żabka, which also advertised at the event.

– They will reach for everything and dig in every hole to get something against Rafał, but the Campus is in perfect order – say Trzaskowski’s supporters.

Not so ideal, because, for example, the last edition received almost a million zlotys from various local governments, and the organizers assured that no public money was invested in Campus.

Advantage and disadvantage in one

However, the most important thing in a campaign is to determine who you are talking to, who needs to be awakened from electoral lethargy, who needs to be reminded, who needs to be convinced for the first time, and who is not worth fighting for at all. Rafał Trzaskowski also has a certain advantage over Nawrocki here – he has been a candidate for four years. His people admit that from time to time they conduct recognition and support surveys. Trzaskowski’s recognition is unique. Most Poles know him, much more than half of the ministers of Donald Tusk’s government.

On the one hand, this is an advantage because you don’t have to introduce yourself to voters. And at the same time it’s a disadvantage, because… you don’t have to introduce yourself.

– We know where it will be most difficult and where the campaign will go relatively smoothly – one of Trzaskowski’s men tells us and starts drawing a map of Poland on a napkin. – I would like to do an “inverted L” in the first phase of the campaign, and perhaps repeat it later.

“Inverted L” is the campaign route from Opole to Rzeszów and north along the eastern wall to Suwałki. That is, where the Civic Coalition has the lowest support. Four years ago, in Podkarpacie, the mayor of the capital had the worst result in Poland in the first round – 16.23%. In the Lublin region, just over 19 percent, in Podlasie, 20 percent. with a piece.

– Rafał’s campaign lasted five weeks, this one will last half a year. We have a plan. We need to talk as often as possible to people who either don’t know him or have no opinion about him. Why organize huge conventions in big cities all the time? Their inhabitants are our natural electorate. We need to be beyond them as much as possible, explain the politicians responsible for Trzaskowski’s campaign.

The fact that the capital’s mayor’s staff has been working for four years has also resulted in very precise surveys of the electorate. Maybe not everything is clear, but it is more or less clear which social groups are willing to consider voting for the Civic Coalition candidate and which are unlikely to ever do so.

– We are missing one group – we hear from staff – women aged 40-60 from smaller centers. There is a specific situation there, because these ladies are very secretive and often simply do not want to admit their views. They think of themselves that they should be more modern and more liberal, but they are not, because that is how they were brought up. We need to make ourselves known a bit, show that people with centrist-conservative views can also vote for Rafał.

This is the unraveling of the mystery of Rafał Trzaskowski’s last visit to Kozia Wola and his dances in the company of a circle of country wives.

Wioletta and everything is clear

The most important thing is people. Rafał Trzaskowski has proven players and, above all, a leader. Wioletta Paprocka-Ślusarska is a shadow person, but over the years she has gained a position that is the envy of many politicians from the first rows of the Sejm. Donald Tusk thanked Paprocka-Ślusarska for the last parliamentary campaign and entrusted her with the local government.

Where did it come from? She has been the head of the political cabinet of the president of Warsaw for years, but she started with the PO parliamentary club at a time when the Platform was in opposition to the first PiS government. She was just over 20 years old. Then she became Grzegorz Schetyna’s spokeswoman at the Ministry of Internal Affairs and his advisor when he moved to the Speaker of the Sejm. That’s why many people in the Platform said that “Wiola comes from Scheta”. But since 2013 she has been associated with the Warsaw City Hall. She came there before Rafał Trzaskowski even thought that he would one day want to rule the capital.

– She is a very efficient organizer. The last campaign proved that relying on politicians who will also be focused on their own race does not bring the expected results. Less meetings, talking and more doing. Wiola is there to do things, say PO politicians.

Paprocka-Ślusarska is even mentioned among those who could replace Rafał Trzaskowski in the Warsaw City Hall after the presidential elections. Of course, if the KO candidate wins and moves to Krakowskie Przedmieście. However, there are also those who say that the head of the capital’s president’s office will move with him and become the head of his office.

Among the people who will certainly work very closely with the KO candidate is also the spokeswoman of the Civic Coalition, Dorota Łoboda, who dealt with education in Warsaw, and for a year has been a member of parliament and head of the extraordinary committee to which all projects regarding pregnancy termination were submitted. And he is doing quite well in the Sejm.

Moreover, the team has a permanent set of politicians, unchanged for years: ministers Sławomir Nitras, Barbara Nowacka and Adam Szłapka. Deputy ministers Paweł Olszewski and Cezary Tomczyk. Local government officials formerly associated with PO. However, ministers cannot directly join the campaign and cannot take leave to run it for half a year for Trzaskowski.

There is also a question about involvement in Donald Tusk’s presidential campaign. He was a driving force in the last parliamentary and local elections, but when he knew he could cause harm, he stepped aside. For example, before the vote for the president of Krakow, he did not appear at Wawel Castle because it was not certain how his presence would affect the voters. The PiS candidate did not enter the second round, but the former PO politician Łukasz Gibała.

– The Prime Minister will certainly not lead Rafał by the hand, because this is not his campaign, and there are places where, let’s be honest, he does not help. There will certainly be joint events in the campaign, but the Prime Minister will not be a full-time participant – politicians from Trzaskowski’s faction respond to questions about Tusk’s participation with some hesitation.

Quietly, some say that the “Manager” is not at all delighted with the results of the primaries. They claim that he is satisfied with Trzaskowski’s victory, but much less satisfied with the fact that he received as many as ¾ of the votes.

– Rafał became a strong player after the primaries. Donald doesn’t like people who are too strong – we hear.

But so what? If Trzaskowski loses, it will be the end not only of him, but actually of his entire political environment, because this one loss will result in political dominoes, of which Tusk is perfectly aware. If he wins, the Prime Minister will “get him over with” for five or maybe 10 years. And he will have another problem: he must find a successor in his camp, which will not be Trzaskowski.